About

Compounding Energy is a research and product firm building quantitative tools for European power markets. We forecast prices, generation mix, and cross-border flows — and we ship the infrastructure that makes those forecasts usable in production.

Our focus is honest, measured accuracy. Every model we ship comes with a published backtest, a regression gate, and a rollback path. If the numbers aren't there, we don't ship.

What we build

GridSight — our flagship product — is a full European electricity forecasting platform. It ingests day-ahead data from ENTSO-E and Elexon, runs per-zone physics dispatch, applies a stacked LightGBM + XGBoost ensemble with quantile distribution matching, and serves the result through a tier-gated API. We run it for ourselves, and we let customers run it too.

What we believe

• Ship measured numbers, not optimistic ones.
• A forecast without a backtest is a guess with good branding.
• Production models need rollback paths from day one.
• Calibration matters as much as point accuracy.
• Energy markets are complex enough — our tools should not be.