In build · CENovaFuels

By Compounding Energy

Year 3 of platform roadmap Targeted for the CEAtlas Expert tier — see pricing for inclusion.

Hydrogen, ammonia, and synthetic fuels — modelled inside the power system that makes them.

Hydrogen and its derivatives don't sit beside the electricity market — they are the electricity market, on the demand side and increasingly on the supply side. CENovaFuels brings electrolysers, ammonia synthesis, methanol and e-fuel pathways, and hydrogen-fired peakers into the same 27-zone European fleet model that drives CEGridSight, so production cost and power-system impact are solved jointly, not sequentially.

Get on the early-access list CEAtlas Expert pricing

What it does

Three pillars.

Production cost modelling

Levelised cost of hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and Fischer-Tropsch products at any candidate site or wholesale node — driven by hourly electrolyser dispatch against the local CEGridSight price path, not a flat assumed offtake price. Honest LCOH that varies by year, zone, and load profile.

Power-system feedback

Electrolysers and synthesis loops are demand assets in the power model and offtake routes for renewables in the supply model — solved as one fixed point, so a 5 GW electrolyser build shows up correctly as both a load and a curtailment sink in the price formation.

Pathway-level dispatch

PEM, alkaline, and SOEC electrolysers; Haber-Bosch and decoupled ammonia loops; methanol and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis — each with its own ramp, minimum-load, and storage constraints, dispatched against power and fuel prices simultaneously.

Methodology

For the quants in the room.

Plain-English first; this section for anyone vetting the maths. Skip if you're not building the project yourself.

Coupling

Power and fuels solved jointly.

Electrolyser load and hydrogen-fired generation enter the same 480-period CEGridSight MILP as additional decision variables, with hydrogen storage and pipeline transport as inter-temporal and inter-zonal links. Self-consistent fleet/price/dispatch fixed-point holds across the coupled energy carriers.

Process models

Linearised at sensible operating points.

Electrolyser efficiency curves linearised in three load segments to retain LP tractability while preserving the part-load behaviour that matters for renewable-coupled operation. Haber-Bosch loops modelled with explicit ramp limits and a buffer tank; SOEC modelled with a co-electrolysis pathway for direct syngas production.

Cost stacks

Bottom-up capex, transparent assumptions.

Capex from IEA, IRENA, and BNEF learning curves with user-overridable trajectory assumptions. Stack replacement, balance-of-plant, and water-treatment costs separated from the electrolyser unit cost. Every LCOH number traces back to the assumption that produced it.

Carbon & certification

RFNBO and EU Delegated Act compliant.

Hourly matching, additionality, and geographic correlation rules enforced as constraints in the dispatch — not check-box reporting after the fact. Output a certifiable hourly attestation for every MWh of green hydrogen produced under the stack.

Who it's for

Project developers, offtakers, planners.

Hydrogen project developers

Bankable LCOH against an honest hourly power price — not a flat €40/MWh assumption that falls apart the day the project actually starts running. PPAs sized to the dispatch the model says you'll actually deliver.

Offtakers & industrial users

Refiners, steelmakers, ammonia majors, shipping fuel buyers — sourcing strategy that prices each candidate supplier against the real power system the supplier will operate inside.

System planners & policy

Quantify the system-wide impact of hydrogen targets — how a 10 GW electrolyser fleet changes wholesale prices, curtailment rates, and the case for new transmission, with all three computed in the same model.

Status

In active build · year three.

CENovaFuels is the year-three slot on the platform roadmap. We're prototyping the electrolyser dispatch coupling against the production CEGridSight MILP now; full pathway support follows once CE BESS Arbitrage, CESentinel, and CEMeridian have stabilised. Early-access partners shape priorities: pathway coverage, certification scheme support, regional fuel-network topology.

Request early access See CENovaSage Back to all products